Kaleidoscope

On diaspora voting

My writing in the past few weeks has taken on a political slant which has been intentional. The Nigerian state was birthed this month and if you have been keen on happenings in Nigeria you’d observe that various political actors have already started making moves this month all geared towards the big showdown in 2023.

However on the matter of showdowns, I will veer off politics temporarily to bring up the Tyson Fury vs Deontay Wilder fight. I was quite pumped in anticipation of the end to the trilogy which lived up to billing.

The night before the big fight, I was in debate with a friend who felt Wilder was undervalued by bookmakers and was going to pull an upset. I provided some analysis as to why I believed the odds, at 1.3 for Fury, were right on the money.

Overall as the concluded trilogy would show, Fury is the superior fighter. He’s what one would call a slugger who simply never quits.

We saw this in at least two of the fights with Wilder getting in early punches with his legendary right hand and even knocking Fury down. And yet more than once, Fury bounced back. The two men gave their all in the ring and credit must go to Wilder who nearly took Fury the whole distance.

Fury though is exceptional, a sui generis boxing supremo with his own grass to grace story which somehow fuels him and keeps him going. As he himself would say, “Don’t ever doubt me, when the chips are down I always deliver!”

Meanwhile, just before the big one, the undercard between Nigeria's Efe Ajagba and Cuba's Frank Sanchez took place. It turned out to be a humbling reality check for Ajagba who until then was 15/15 in his professional career.

The fight report showed that Ajagba lost all 10 rounds based on the scorecards from the judges, though not for lack of effort. Like Wilder, it was simply a case of being outclassed by the better pugilist.

This period has been mixed for Nigerian sports. Late last month, Anthony Joshua was sprung an upset following his loss to Oleksandr Usyk.

On Thursday, Blessing Okagbare was charged with three anti-doping offences following her dismissal from the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. That same day, the Nigerian football team lost a World Cup qualifier at home to lowly-ranked Central African Republic—although we went on to win the reverse fixture.

Returning to politics, for this week’s entry I’ve decided to discuss a recurring issue that tends to pop up one way or another on my timeline. This time around, a friend of mine sort of reignited the discourse.

This friend wrote on Twitter: “The potential influence of the Nigerian diaspora is immense. Careful organisation and allocation of capital by a demographic repatriating ~$20bn/annum can influence elections, politicking, policymaking, make and break governments. If only they can have that coordination.”

The sum of what is being discussed above if it’s not clear is the idea of mobilising Nigerians in the diaspora to fund a preferred candidate. The argument has taken slight iterations in the past such as having tech bros in Nigeria come together and create a fund with the specific aim of supporting a candidate of their choice.

Before I delve into the argument, I’d like to say that I enjoy seeing Nigerians thinking innovatively about the future of the country. What it tells me is that despite our collective dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs, we still want the country to thrive. And this gives me hope.

On to the matter.

A popular Twitter commenter on the thread raised a counterpoint: “Unless the country is restructured into a form that gets people excited about returning to it and participating in government at levels they can have real influence, I don’t see why they would mobilize capital for this.”

The counter here is that there is no incentive for people to expend resources towards this venture. This is a valid concern.

Nigeria has a substantial populace in the diaspora which the government has, over time, become increasingly reliant on.

With the slump in the naira and forex scarcity, diaspora remittances have become a lifeblood of this administration which explains the CBN’s initial vehemence against cryptocurrencies.

In August, AfricaReport noted thus:

“Diaspora remittance inflow into Nigeria declined by a consequential 27% to $17.2bn, down from $23.5bn last year.

The steep decline was $4bn more than the projection by the World Bank.”

The reason?

Largely, the adoption of bitcoin driven by an increasing distrust in the Nigerian financial system.

The CBN has adopted measures to stymie the decline in remittances as well as get the diaspora actively sending more money to fill the coffers.

It has extended the Naira4dollar scheme indefinitely, a scheme for those unaware, that rewards recipients with N5 for every dollar received via official channels.

It has also announced the adoption of the e-Naira, a state-backed digital currency to be pegged to the naira and accepted as legal tender. Whether this will gain wide acceptance will be seen in the coming months.

The Nigerian diaspora. Credits: The Guardian

On the issue of incentives for the Nigerian diaspora, my thoughts are clear. The problems with funding a candidate are aplenty. I’ll dwell on two for brevity.

Firstly, elections are not just about money. There’s a great deal of effort that goes into grassroots politicking, mobilising manpower for the hard work of spreading awareness, registering voters, and monitoring votes. That kind of reach is built painstakingly over time. Loyalty and commitment are qualities that money can’t buy.

Secondly, the problem with having your source of funding coming from a group of people asides—breaking electoral guidelines regarding funding—is that the one who pays the piper dictates the tune.

Political parties may be old-fashioned but their appeal comes from the fact that they cover an amalgam of interest groups. If your funding comes primarily from tech bros or the diaspora, there’s always going to be concern raised about whose interests would be served.

Is it those of the average Nigerian or those overseas who do not get to experience the aftermath of their electoral choices firsthand?

Rather than them crowdfunding for a candidate, how about getting them actively involved themselves via diaspora voting?

The diaspora plays a big role in influencing economic and foreign policy. Their switchover from traditional remittance to crypto is one example.

One could also look at how they helped stoke international pressure on the Nigerian government during the #BringBackOurGirls saga. I say it’s time to enfranchise them.

It would be an epic coup should the electoral act and indeed the constitution be amended to make allowance for it.

This excellent piece by Muzz Muhammed on diaspora voting should help shed light on why Nigeria has yet to implement it despite some African countries already leading the way in that regard.

In 2017, the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Foreign Affairs and the Diaspora, Mrs Abike Dabiri-Erewa, said that there were 15 million Nigerians in the diaspora. 15 million is a sizable number and enough to swing electoral outcomes.

Last year, the INEC chairman, Professor Yakubu Mahmood, urged the national assembly to expedite action towards making diaspora voting a reality.

As it stands, any delays towards its implementation is only due to ‘political considerations’. For the government to ratify such, it may need ‘assurances’ that voters in the diaspora would support them with their votes.

Hence, when the Minister for State for Foreign Affairs, Zubairu Dada, said that Nigeria was not ready for diaspora voting and should not hope for such in the coming election I was disappointed at what I believe is a missed opportunity.

Ultimately, the onus lies with the Nigerian legislature. We must make that part of ongoing discussions going forward and indeed a campaign pledge for those who would run in 2023.

The best time to enfranchise the diaspora was yesterday. The second best time is now.