While I am of the view that one must never say never, I frankly do not think that I can become a politician. I have neither the temperament nor the savvy for it.
I am however, very keen on observing the chicanery and the concomitant tergiversation that one comes to expect with Nigerian politics, not least in the build up to the general elections that are less than two years away.
Over the course of the past few days we have seen firsthand, Nigerian politics in all its ingloriousness. A prominent individual known for his anti-government rhetoric and inflammatory diatribe against all things related to the present administration did a volte-face by switching to the APC.
According to him, the move was made at the behest of God. Personally, I took it in good humour. It would take an unusual kind of naïveté for such a move to come as a shock considering that this person has a precedent already established following a history of defections. Leopard and spots.
Still on the matter of precedents, nothing quite comes close to a rumour which has been brewing up for quite some time now. A rumour which, if true, would be unprecedented by sheer scale of its ramifications.
Word on the street is that a former president, Goodluck Jonathan, who ran under the platform of the PDP is set to make a comeback. This time though as a potential candidate for the APC.
There’s a lot to digest here and I must kindly reiterate that this is still unconfirmed. But first, a bit of recent history.
In 2016, Godwin Obaseki under the APC ran for governor of Edo State against Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the PDP. Obaseki won the election. Four years down the line however, following a battle for supremacy with former governor and then national chairman of the APC, Adams Oshiomole, Obaseki defected to the PDP.
To sweeten the plot, Ize-Iyamu who was formerly of the PDP crossed over and was chosen as the flagbearer of the APC. The irony was not lost on anyone, not least for Oshiomole who prior to Ize-Iyamu’s defection had unprintable words for him.
The game is the game nonetheless and as election day drew near, we saw a repentant Oshiomole rallying votes for his former foe. It was a lost battle all the same. Obaseki’s job was simply to run billboards showing various comments and videos where Oshiomole had lambasted Ize-Iyamu. Obaseki's victory was a certainty.
As Karl Marx once quipped, ‘history repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.’ If the former president decides to decamp to the party that trounced him the first time in the hopes of securing victory, it may do him well to remember those pithy words.
A few days ago, the former president through a spokesperson debunked reports of his defection to the APC. Yet if anything you’ve read up till this point is to go by, or if you are conversant with politicians then two things must have been established in your mind.
One is that in politics where there’s smoke, there’s fire. Two, placing faith in the words of politicians is almost always a disappointing undertaking. They will backtrack once it becomes a matter of expediency.
Here’s a historical reminder: George H.W Bush’s ‘read my lips’ speech where he promised that there will be no new taxes should he become president.
As the rumours have been piling on, different takes have emerged. Some have opined that a GEJ presidency is the best thing to happen. The logic, they argue, is that constitutionally he will only be able to serve one term having already served one before. To these set of people, this would be an opportunity for GEJ to redeem himself and perhaps, his legacy.
There are others who are of the view that GEJ running under the APC is akin to a betrayal. They argue that he would be threading uncharted territory having to switch not just parties but ideologies and having to support the very things he once stood against. For these guys, GEJ switching to the other side would be unforgivable and will ultimately end in opprobrium, much like Ize-Iyamu.
Over the next few months we will see the Nigerian political landscape undergo shape-shifting as various interests begin to converge towards the seat of power.
President Muhammadu Buhari casting his vote at the 2019 general elections. Credits: Vanguard News
The nub of this newsletter is to address some salient points on politics which I think may be instructive for young Nigerians like myself and which I hope may provide clarity of thinking when matters concerning the future of this country come to the fore.
I am active on social media and one of the things I do is follow conversations, read threads and aggregate different opinions. A worrying trend I have come to observe is that young Nigerians have a tendency to pick up the wrong battles. We do not know how to align our interests towards the greater good.
While the powers that be are forging alliances, what do we do? We are online attacking straw men. We are more concerned with ‘ratioing’ people who express political views that are pro-government or that do not conform to the current orthodoxy.
We are drawn to futile battles, stuck in the meaningless pastime of berating people who championed Buhari in 2015 or 2019. Yes it was a mistake and that issue has been dissected to the point where it is now largely academic.
Can we discuss the here and now and plan for the future? Or is it a more profitable venture to make an easy target of a tech bro or influencer who voices support for the government?
That tech bro is not the enemy. Anyone who operates a business in Nigeria knows the harsh truth which is that if you don't toe certain lines, you’re going to see the red fury of the government.
If being sympathetic towards the government offers them a reprieve, understand that they are acting based on the need for survival.
An influencer is an…influencer! Once you recognise that, all that’s left is to ask yourself if you want to choose to be influenced or if you would ignore.
The real issues here are to discuss potential frontrunners in the coming elections and see which of them best represents our collective interests. I will use this opportunity to digress a bit and discuss the “third force”.
A few years back I used to champion the idea of a third force, a party outside of the top two that can challenge the existing order and birth a new dawn for Nigerian democracy. I have come to see such utopia as nothing but foolishness to the nth degree.
Some people have brought that up again and without mincing words, it is doomed to fail. Anytime I hear people suggest rallying for an outside candidate, I only have one question for them: which candidate finished third in the last presidential election?
Not one of them knows the answer and I will truly be in awe of you if you do.
Result of the 2019 presidential election in Nigeria. Credits: Wikipedia
Our protagonist who finished third in the screenshot above, Mr. Felix Nicolas, was wily enough to run under a party known as the PCP, an acronym bearing a not-so-subtle resemblance to the PDP while polling more than 100,000 (accidental?) votes—more than all the third force candidates combined.
One of the third force candidates was even featured on Al-Jazeera leading up till the election. All of that publicity amounted to nothing. Might I perhaps suggest for 2023 that any other third force candidate should try running under a new party by the name ABC?
For those who haven’t seen a ballot paper before, let me tell you: it doesn’t have the names of candidates written on it, only their accredited parties.
The trader in a remote Nigerian town does not know who your third force candidate is, they only recognise two parties that have firm footholds and grassroot support entrenched in the country going as far back as independence.
Returning to the subject of strategising, our only recourse is to translate our youthful majority into a powerful voting bloc and aligning with whatever major party proffers the best outlook for the future.
It should be clear by now that our choice on the ballot will very likely dictate the direction of our country for years to come, affecting even our children unborn.
We do not know the flagbearers yet, but the moment will soon be upon us. We must as youths, understand that politics is not a game of ethics, only interests.
This segues nicely into the concept of realpolitik, which is politics based on pragmatism as opposed to ideals. I think the real question here is, do we want to be right, or do we want to win?
We will never have a ‘perfect candidate’. Even if Jesus were to decide to run for president, a section of Nigerians will remind him of what he said in Matthew 10:34 and why he will never make a suitable president.
Summarily, I don’t see any point in stigmatising people anymore over their voting choices. We have suffered immensely. Now is the time to ask, which way forward?
I’m not sure there’s a right answer to that and I fear that when the options do present themselves, we may have to choose between the lesser of two evils.
And yet, for better or worse, choose we must.
We would choose and one day hopefully we would get it right 🙏