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As a general rule, thanks to the work of eminent behavioral expert and Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman, we now know that humans are intuitively poor at statistics. By “intuitively,” this means that statistics does not come naturally to us the way, say, language or reading facial expressions do.
There are a couple of examples to illustrate this, but one of my favorites comes from the veridical paradox known as the birthday problem. In a room of 23 people selected at random, there is about a 50% chance that two of them share the same birthday. If we increase the sample to 70, the probability nears a virtual certainty of 99.9%.
People who come across this problem the first time think it is a mathematical mistake. “Surely that can’t be true? Don’t you need way more people?” As it turns out, you don’t.
The error in reasoning often comes down to how we naturally only situate ourselves when presented with the problem. We only think of our birthdays when checking against others. We’re not considering that in a room of 23 people, there are 22 other people for whom matching pairs could exist, meaning 253 combinations (23 x 22/2). One only needs to find a match for the “paradox” to be resolved. Here’s a broken-down explanation for those interested in the maths and an even simpler Ted-Ed video that beautifully sheds light on the problem.
I hope you learned something new. I wanted you to ease up a bit because I want to write about a few things that have been pain points for many Nigerians, which also center around numbers and how we often situate ourselves without zooming out. What follows are a few real-world examples. You may want to grab a coffee and sit for this one.
Is japa really a wave?
In my experience, this is a touchy issue. So, I’ll try as best as I can to limit the political commentary and focus on the numbers.
When I think of a wave, the image that comes to mind is a large crowd of people either on an exodus or doing something in sync. To the latter point, sports fans (like myself) may be familiar with the Mexican wave.
It is a matter of public knowledge that the Nigerian economy is a shambles and has been so for a while. So, it makes sense that people would want to look elsewhere for better opportunities. The Nigerian brain drain is real; there’s even a Wikipedia page dedicated to it.
But I also think it requires some qualification if the japa fits a “wave” based on the imagery I’ve provided and if the brain drain is unique to us. I myself have been culpable of describing it as such. However, having studied some data relating to migration, I’ll leave you to draw your conclusions.
As you may observe from the chart provided by Statista above, the data covers a period of 20 years, from 2000 to 2020, which clearly doesn’t account for more recent migratory trends. But it does provide exciting insights. India now has the world’s largest diaspora, having gone from 7.9 million in 2000 to 17.9 million in 2020. That may feel like a significant increase until you realize that India’s population in 2020 was 1.39 billion. Its diaspora constitutes a negligible 0.013% of its native population. Perspective matters.
Bangladesh, in South East Asia, is also worth mentioning. Like Nigeria, it suffers from brain drain. It has 7.4 million of its people living in the diaspora and a native population of 167.4 million in 2020, which comes to 4.4%. Official data from the country as of 2022 put diaspora figures at 13 million, which I’d say is significant enough to raise eyebrows.
And Nigeria? According to the African Development Bank (AfDB), Nigeria ranks fourth among African countries with the most diasporans outside the continent. “From 320,000 people in 2000 to about one million in 2020, about 58% of Nigeria’s diasporans live outside Africa, while 42% live in Africa,” says Kevin Urama, a chief economist at the bank.
However, in 2017, then Senior Special Assistant to the President on Foreign Affairs and The Diaspora, Mrs. Abike Dabiri-Erewa, claimed there were 15 million Nigerians in the diaspora. My first thought was that it was fictitious. A fact-check by Africa Check ruled this claim as unproven, with a UN estimate in 2020 putting it around 1.7 million. The National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), earlier this year, said there were 366,164 Nigerians in the diaspora with a National Identification Number (NIN).
I’m wary of Nigeria’s population figures, as I’ve written about a couple of times, but in keeping with the trend so far, I’ll state that 2020 estimates put Nigeria’s population at 208.3 million. This means the Nigerian diaspora constitutes anything from 0.48-0.81% of our population (using AfDB/UN estimates), which would be even lower if we redefine the diaspora as Nigerians who live outside Africa.
Given this background, the rhetorical question which I leave to you to reflect on is if the japa trend in Nigeria is a massive wave, or if it is par for the course.
This chart from FDI Intelligence reveals the Human Flight and Brain Drain Index score that covers 177 countries and is ranked from 0-10, low to high. The global average is 5.17. Notice the sea of red across Africa.
Nigeria ranks 44th with an index of 6.7. It's not great, but it's still better than countries like Senegal(35) and Morocco(28). Sub-Saharan Africa ranks poorly in human development indices, which shows in economic migration patterns. The Nigerian Immigration Service (NIS) said it issued 9.31 million passports between 2015 and 2022. However, it is also apparent, based on what has been explained so far, that not many people got to japa with these passports.
A recent survey by Piggyvest on spending showed that japa remains the primary goal for over 50% of Gen Zs in Nigeria, constituting the third most common reason why people save. But, and this is my educated guess, the devaluation of the naira will make those plans even harder, leaving more people feeling trapped or seeking alternatives. As a friend of mine told me recently, “I’ve decided to go to another African country if Europe and co don’t work out.” I hope she doesn’t see the chart above.
Is Nigeria a gambler’s paradise?
There are some headlines you come across that stop you in your tracks and leave your mouth wide agape. Just like the one below, which trended online:
I’ve written before on this blog about how to hone your bullshit detector. While the headline is reported as a quote, it’s still BS. Let’s dig a little into the story.
Data from the National Lottery Trust Fund (NLTF) has revealed that over 65 million Nigerians actively engage in betting, spending an average of $15 daily. This is just as it disclosed that every day, 14 million bets take (place) and payments are made online in the country.
Executive secretary of NLTF, Bello Maigari, made this known yesterday at the second edition of the biennial national gaming conference held in Lagos.
He said Nigerians spend billions of dollars on betting each year despite economic hardship.
“Currently, there are over 65 million Nigerians actively engaging in this activity, spending $15 on average every day. It is on record each day 14 million bets are taken, and payments are made online in our country.
“It is expected to experience an annual growth rate of nearly 10% to reach more than $366 million by 2027,” he said.
What a contradiction! How can you, on the one hand, say the gaming industry rakes in $975m daily but are, in the same breath, projecting annual revenues from the same industry to grow to $366m by 2027?
To spare you a long read, the nonsensical claim that Nigerians spent $975m daily on betting was arrived at by multiplying the purported 65 million gamblers by the more dubious $15 spent daily on betting. This is a mind-bending claim because nearly two-thirds of Nigerians live on less than $2 daily. I’m not the only one who doubts it.
Gambling is an expensive habit. There’s a positive correlation between countries that gamble the most and wealth.
While I do not doubt that it is a popular activity in Nigeria, it would be splendid if the NLTF shared some of its data in the public domain for analysis. It’s not clear to me, for example, how people can afford 15$ in disposable income daily for betting. It’s also not clear how it defines “active.” For example, the US, with a population of 339 million, has 10 million people who gamble online “on a regular basis.”
Some people will say there’s a gambling epidemic in Nigeria, and I hear them. But I also hope they’re not basing their assumptions on this report. If you’ve lived in Nigeria long enough, you’d know that finding accurate data on anything can often be a fool’s errand, and we may have to rely on guesstimates. A shame, of course, but as one famous tweet goes, “If they explain Nigeria to you and you understand it, they didn't explain it well enough.”
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